Keir Starmer's Backers Begin 'Halt Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Return

Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a coordinated effort to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to parliament. This action comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an upcoming by-election.

Significant Hurdles in the Candidate Selection Process

A number of figures on the party's ruling NEC have reportedly suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is largely due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are anxious to avoid any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The party apparatus reportedly sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted outrage within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the party leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to possibly stand for the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any planning, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would only return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Against a backdrop of polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole prominent Labour personality with favourable public approval ratings.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the by-election against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any possible leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour figures have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to stop talking about possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have allegedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect an estimated £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.

A number of sources also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. There is also speculation the committee could enforce an all-female shortlist to block his nomination.

Yet, one Burnham ally warned against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The trade unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The seat in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is expected to launch a significant challenge, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.

The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry related to his membership in an offensive online group.