A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
