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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward formula. It often functions as a form of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our preseason predictions.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who oversaw the most dramatic turnaround is handed the award. However, it fuels an yearly debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or merely the biggest upset.

But this year's race is distinctly unique. The list of contenders is remarkably talented. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The league has been messy, with reigning division champions fading and longtime also-rans improving in unison. During an ordinary year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in this turbulent and fun year, he's competing with several other elite coaches.

Here is how the projected ballot could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by signal-callers. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach not only fixed Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's prolonged performance. With Johnson, Williams has become more confident, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system rather than freelancing. It is an offense designed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide receiver targets consistently. Williams has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to conjure magic from nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost each decision – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer yet for a leader who entered the organization with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not only to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

During a ordinary season, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. Yet this isn't a typical season!

Where his case comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's heavy lifting. With a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. But Johnson comes up just short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar situation to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has masterminded a swift resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best overall ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has nailed the intangibles aspects, which was not a guarantee following his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the ideal staff mix of youth and veteran savvy, he trusted newbies. Starting with the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an initial hot start, there was a chance that the campaign would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the team stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing explosive answers and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year narrative has a hinge decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. By the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has cooled off after that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, putting him only a single spot ahead of other QBs.

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