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Back in October 2022, when Rishi Sunak assumed office as the UK's leader, he became the fifth consecutive British prime minister to take up the role in six years.

Unleashed on the UK by Brexit, this represented exceptional governmental instability. So what term captures what is occurring in the French Republic, now on its fifth premier in 24 months – three of them in the last ten months?

The latest prime minister, the newly reinstated Sébastien Lecornu, may have secured a temporary reprieve on that day, abandoning Emmanuel Macron’s key pension reform in return for opposition Socialist votes as the price for his government’s survival.

But it is, at best, a temporary fix. The EU’s second-largest economy is locked in a political permacrisis, the likes of which it has not experienced for many years – perhaps not since the establishment of its Fifth Republic in 1958 – and from which there appears no simple way out.

Minority Rule

Key background: ever since Macron initiated an risky early parliamentary vote in 2024, the nation has had a hung parliament split into three warring blocs – the left, the far right and his own centrist coalition – without any group holding a clear majority.

At the same time, the nation faces dual debt and deficit crises: its debt-to-GDP ratio and budget shortfall are now nearly double the EU limit, and strict legal timelines to approve a 2026 budget that at least begins to rein in spending are approaching.

Against that unforgiving backdrop, both Lecornu’s immediate predecessors – Michel Barnier, who served from September to December 2024, and François Bayrou, who held the position from December 2024 to September 2025 – were removed by parliament.

In September, the leader named his close ally Lecornu as his latest PM. But when, just over a fortnight later, Lecornu unveiled his new cabinet – which proved to be much the same as the old one – he encountered anger from both supporters and rivals.

So much so that the next day, he stepped down. After just 27 days in office, Lecornu became the briefest-serving prime minister in modern French history. In a respectful address, he blamed political intransigence, saying “partisan attitudes” and “personal ambitions” would make his job all but impossible.

Another twist in the tale: just hours after Lecornu’s resignation, Macron asked him to stay on for two more days in a final attempt to secure multi-party support – a mission, to put it mildly, filled with challenges.

Next, two ex-prime ministers publicly turned on the struggling leader. Meanwhile, the right-wing RN and leftist LFI declined to engage with Lecornu, vowing to reject all future administrations unless there were early elections.

Lecornu stuck at his job, talking to everyone who was prepared to hear him out. At the end of his 48 hours, he went on TV to say he thought “a solution remained possible” to prevent a vote. The leader's team confirmed the president would name a fresh premier 48 hours later.

Macron honored his word – and on Friday appointed … Sébastien Lecornu, again. So recently – with Macron helpfully sniping from the sidelines that the country’s rival political parties were “creating discord” and “solely responsible for this chaos” – was Lecornu’s moment of truth. Would he endure – and is he able to approve the crucial budget?

In a critical address, the 39-year-old PM spelled out his budget priorities, giving the Socialist party, who detest Macron’s controversial pension changes, what they were expecting: Macron’s flagship reform would be frozen until 2027.

With the conservative Les Républicains (LR) already supportive, the Socialists said they would refuse to support censorship votes tabled against Lecornu by the far right and radical left – meaning the government should survive those votes, due on Thursday.

It is, however, by no means certain to be able to pass its planned €30bn budget squeeze: the PS clearly stated that it would be seeking more concessions. “This move,” said its leader, Olivier Faure, “is only the beginning.”

Changing Political Culture

The problem is, the more Lecornu cedes to the centre-left, the more opposition he'll face from the right. And, like the PS, the right-leaning parties are themselves split on dealing with the administration – certain members remain eager to bring it down.

A look at the seat numbers shows how difficult his mission – and future viability – will be. A combined 264 lawmakers from the far-right RN, radical-left LFI, Greens, Communists and UDR seek his removal.

To achieve that, they need a 288-vote majority in parliament – so if they can convince only 24 of the PS’s 69 deputies or the LR’s 47 representatives (or both) to support their motion, Macron’s fifth precarious prime minister in 24 months is, like his predecessors, finished.

Most expect this to occur soon. Even if, by some miracle, the dysfunctional assembly summons up the collective responsibility to approve a budget this year, the outlook afterward look bleak.

So does an exit exist? Early elections would be doubtful to resolve the issue: surveys indicate pretty much every party bar the RN would see reduced representation, but there would remain no decisive majority. A fresh premier would face the same intractable arithmetic.

Another possibility might be for Macron himself to step down. After a presidential vote, his replacement would dissolve parliament and aim for a legislative majority in the following election. But this also remains unclear.

Surveys show the future president will be Le Pen or Bardella. There is at least an strong possibility that France’s voters, having chosen a far-right leader, might think twice about handing them control of parliament.

Ultimately, France may not emerge from its quagmire until its politicians acknowledge the changed landscape, which is that decisive majorities are a bygone phenomenon, winner-takes-all no longer applies, and compromise is not synonymous with failure.

Numerous observers believe that transformation will not be feasible under the country’s current constitution. “This isn't a standard political crisis, but a crise de régime” that will prove anything but temporary.

“The system wasn't built to encourage – and even disincentivizes – the formation of ruling alliances common in the rest of Europe. The Fifth Republic may well have entered its terminal phase.”