Daily Homicides in the nation Decline Over a Third Under the Sheinbaum Administration, Per Government Figures

The mean number of everyday homicides monthly in Mexico has fallen by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, according to new administrative data. However, public safety specialists have advised that homicide data could fail to point to better countrywide stability.

Notable Drop in Daily Averages

Officials reported an average of close to 55 homicides a day in November compared with roughly 87 when Sheinbaum took the presidential office in September of last year. This data was delivered by the chief of the country’s national public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The outcome in homicides that we’ve had in these months is extremely significant,” the President stated, adding that in November the lowest number of murders were registered for any single November in the past decade.

Historical Background and Official Strategy

Violent cartel infighting, coupled with the government’s heavily militarised campaigns to take on the trafficking organizations, have caused Mexico’s homicide numbers soar in the past few years. The figure hit a record high of 36,773 killings in 2020, per the nation's official data agency.

That meant Mexico a murder rate more than 4x greater than the United States. Since then, murders have been on the decline, declining to 33,550 last year. The President has attributed her national security plan for an apparently steeper reduction in killings this year.

At a media briefing in August, the head of state stated: “There is a plan, there is oversight of the strategy, and there is detailed monitoring town by town in certain cases. The plan works. And we have to continue working at it daily.”

The main components of the President's safety plan encompass:

• Strengthening Mexico’s federal guard.
• Improving information gathering and investigative capabilities.
• Enhanced coordination between government departments.

Analyst Skepticism and Statistical Concerns

Nevertheless, security experts urged caution that using homicide numbers to assess the situation of pacification was misleading. This is notably true in light of the uptick in other crimes such as forced disappearances.

“That would be very good news if this was a drop, but I think we must not just look at the homicide numbers and think: ‘Oh well, good,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican organised crime. “I would be guardedly hopeful.”

According to the public policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, killings overall declined by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of this year versus the identical period last year. But, missing persons cases have risen by 15% and in certain regions have increased by as much as 200%.

“Data on homicides is not reliable for estimating the reality of insecurity,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and prosecutors who do not have the resources or the inclination to correctly identify and classify remains. Second, organised [criminals] … have the means to hide violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas added that relying on month-to-month averages of everyday killings was also an issue because it might hide days when there were particularly high numbers of killings.

“Employing the per-day mean renders high peaks of violence unseen,” he stated.

Detentions and Seizures as Measures of Success

Where the government can point to the success of its safety plan is on detentions and confiscations. Close to 40,000 individuals were arrested between October 2024 and November 2025 for serious offenses, according to government data. Over 20,000 weapons were confiscated and 311 tonnes of narcotics intercepted.

“The former US president can't claim President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because in reality she is doing a lot with these thousands of detentions, thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical weakening of criminal groups. It’s highly in political terms advantageous,” stated Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Societal Anger

However despite these efforts, Mexico remains beset by high bloodshed, with several regions in the grip of cartel-fueled bloodshed. Last month there was a prominent murder of a popular local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors murdered in the last 12 months.

Weeks later, thousands of youth protested in Mexico City and across the nation to express their anger at graft and cartel violence.

“The government frames [data] in a manner to build a story of improvement. From a political standpoint it’s highly potent, from a social perspective it’s extremely questionable,” Vargas concluded.